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A U.
S. Attack on Iran: The Perfect Storm for wider nuclear
conflict
Intelligence Indications And Warnings Abound On Bush
Iran Military Strike
By Wayne Madsen http://waynemadsenreport.com/
1-3-6
Intelligence and military sources in
the United States and abroad are reporting on various
factors that indicate a U.S. military hit on Iranian
nuclear and military installations, that may involve
tactical nuclear weapons, is in the final stages of
preparation. Likely targets for saturation bombing are
the Bushehr nuclear power plant (where Russian and other
foreign national technicians are present), a uranium
mining site in Saghand near the city of Yazd, the uranium
enrichment facility in Natanz, a heavy water plant and
radioisotope facility in Arak, the Ardekan Nuclear Fuel
Unit, the Uranium Conversion Facility and Nuclear
Technology Center in Isfahan, the Tehran Nuclear Research
Center, the Tehran Molybdenum, Iodine and Xenon
Radioisotope Production Facility, the Tehran Jabr Ibn
Hayan Multipurpose Laboratories, the Kalaye Electric
Company in the Tehran suburbs, a reportedly dismantled
uranium enrichment plant in Lashkar Abad, and the
Radioactive Waste Storage Units in Karaj and Anarak.
Primary target: Bushehr nuclear
reactor and hundreds of Russian technicians
Other first targets would be Shahab-I,
II, and III missile launch sites, air bases (including
the large Mehrabad air base/international airport near
Tehran), naval installations on the Persian Gulf and
Caspian Sea, command, control, communications and
intelligence facilities. Secondary targets would include
civilian airports, radio and TV installations,
telecommunications centers, government buildings,
conventional power plants, highways and bridges, and rail
lines. Oil installations and commercial port facilities
would likely be relatively untouched by U.S. forces in
order to preserve them for U.S. oil and business
interests.
There has been a rapid increase in
training and readiness at a number of U.S. military
installations involved with the planned primarily aerial
attack. These include a Pentagon order to Fort Rucker,
Alabama, to be prepared to handle an estimated 50,000 to
60,000 trainees, including civilian contractors, who will
be deployed for Iranian combat operations. Rucker is home
to the US Army's aviation training command, including the
helicopter training school.
In addition, there has been an
increase in readiness at nearby Hurlburt Field in
Florida, the home of the U.S. Air Force Special
Operations Command. The U.S. attack on Iran will
primarily involve aviation (Navy, Air Force, Navy-Marine
Corps) and special operations assets.
There has also been a noticeable
increase in activity at Marine Corps Air Ground Combat
Center at Twentynine Palms, California, a primary live
fire training activity located in a desert and
mountainous environment similar to target areas in
Iran.
From European intelligence agencies comes word that the
United States has told its NATO allies to be prepared for
a military strike on Iranian nuclear development and
military installations.
On November 17, 2005, Russian President Vladimir Putin
spent seven hours in secret discussions with Turkish
Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan during the the
opening ceremonies in Samsun, Turkey for the
Russian-Turkish underwater Blue Stream natural gas
pipeline, festivities also attended by Italian Prime
Minister Silvio Berlusconi.
According to sources knowledgeable about the meeting,
Erdogan promised Putin, who has become a close friend,
that Turkey would not support the use of its bases by the
United States in a military attack on Iran. That brought
a series of high level visits to Turkey by Bush
administration officials, including CIA chief Porter
Goss, FBI Director Robert Mueller, and Secretary of State
Condoleezza Rice.
Although Erdogan listened to Goss's and Rice's pleas for
Turkish logistical, political, and intelligence help for
an attack on Iran and Turkish Army Chief Yasar Buyukanit
heard much the same from Pentagon officials during his
recent trip to Washington, the word is that Putin now has
enough clout in Ankara to scuttle any use of Turkey by
the U. S. for an attack on Iran. [Mueller delivered
Ankara intelligence "proof" of Iranian backing for
Kurdish Workers' Party (PKK) guerrillas in Turkey.
Intelligence agencies and business intelligence units
around the world are now discounting any intelligence
coming from the Bush administration as neocon propaganda
invented by think tanks and discredited intelligence
agencies in Washington, Tel Aviv-Herzliya, and
Jerusalem].
A U. S. Attack on Iran: The Perfect Storm for wider
nuclear conflict
U. S. political and military officials have also
approached Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, Jordan, Oman,
and Azerbaijan seeking their support for a U. S. attack
on Iran. Ina replay of the phony pre-war intelligence on
Iraq, Washington is trying to convince various countries
that a link exists between Iran and "Al Qaeda."
Polish intelligence sources report that Poland's Defense
Minister Radek Sikorski assured Defense Secretary Donald
Rumsfeld of Poland's support for any U. S. strike against
Iran. Sikorski is a former American Enterprise Institute
colleague of such neo-cons as Richard Perle, Michael
Ledeen, and Lynne Cheney, the so-called "Second Lady" of
the United States. Sikorski and Polish Foreign Minister
Stefan Meller assured Rumsfeld and Rice, respectively,
that Poland would stand by the United States during the
split in NATO that will occur as a result of the American
strike. Polish intelligence sources, who are unhappy with
the arrangement of the new right-wing government in
Warsaw with the Bush administration, leaked the
information about the recent U. S. demarche to NATO in
Brussels about preparation for the attack.
Similar intelligence "leaks" about the U. S. attack plans
were also leaked to the German magazine Der Spiegel.
European intelligence sources also report that the recent
decision by Putin and Russia's state-owned Gazprom
natural gas company to cut supplied of natural gas to
Ukraine was a clear warning by Putin to nations like
Ukraine, Poland, Romania, Czech Republic, Slovakia,
Slovenia, Croatia, Moldova, France, Austria, Italy,
Hungary, Bosnia, Serbia, and Germany that it would do the
same if they support the U. S. attack on Iran. Gazprom
natural gas is supplied, via pipelines in Ukraine, from
Russia and Turkmenistan to countries in Eastern and
Western Europe. The Bush administration charged Russia
with using gas supplies as a "political tool."
Putin has additional leverage on Western Europe since
former German Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder accepted an
appointment to the board of a joint Russian-German North
European Gas Pipeline Consortium that is controlled by
Gazprom. The pipeline will bring Russian gas to
Scandinavia, Germany, Netherlands, and Britain, giving
Putin additional leverage over Washington in Europe.
Southeast Asian intelligence sources report that Burma's
(Myanmar's) recent abrupt decision to move its capital
from Rangoon (Yangon) to remote Pyinmana, 200 miles to
the north, is a result of Chinese intelligence warnings
to its Burmese allies about the effects of radiation
resulting from a U. S. conventional or tactical nuclear
attack on Iranian nuclear facilities. There is concern
that a series of attacks on Iranian nuclear installations
will create a Chernobyl-like radioactive cloud that would
be caught up in monsoon weather in the Indian Ocean.
Rangoon (Yangon) capital moved 200 miles north over fears
of monsoon season Iran nuclear fallout?
Low-lying Rangoon lies in the path of monsoon rains that
would continue to carry radioactive fallout from Iran
over South and Southeast Asia between May and October.
Coastal Indian Ocean cities like Rangoon, Dhaka,
Calcutta, Mumbai, Chennai, and Colombo would be affected
by the radioactive fallout more than higher elevation
cities since humidity intensifies the effects of the
fallout. Thousands of government workers were given only
two days' notice to pack up and leave Rangoon for the
higher (and dryer) mountainous Pyinmana.
In neighboring West Bengal, the leftist government and
its national leftist allies around the country are
planning massive demonstrations during Bush's upcoming
trip to India. They are protesting the war in Iraq as
well as the threats against Iran.
Reports from Yemen indicate that western oil companies
are concerned about U. S. intentions in Iran since the
southern Arabian country catches the edge of the monsoon
rains that could contain radioactive fallout from an
attack, endangering their workers in the country.
The Bush administration aborted last minute plans to
attack Iranian nuclear and political installations prior
to the 2004 presidential election. On October 9, Rumsfeld
met with defense minister colleagues on the now
decommissioned USS John F. Kennedy in the Persian Gulf to
seek support for the attack. That meeting has been
confirmed by the Danish Defense Minister who was in
attendance, however, the topic of the meeting was not
discussed. According to U. S. naval personnel on board
the Kennedy, a special "war room" was set up to
coordinate the attack. Britain, Australia, Italy,
Netherlands, and Japan did not attend the meeting because
of their opposition to the attack plans.
Intelligence and military officials around the world are
also bracing for the results of a U. S. attack on Iran.
This includes the distinct possibility of a major Shia
retaliatory attack in Iraq, the Eastern Province of Saudi
Arabia, Kuwait, Bahrain, the United Arab Emirates,
Lebanon, and Afghanistan against U. S. military,
diplomatic, and economic targets in the region.
Radioactive fallout from a conventional or tactical
nuclear attack on Iran will result in major problems with
Pakistan, India, China, Russia, Japan, and other downwind
countries in Asia and the Pacific Rim, possibly including
the fall of the Pervez Musharraf government in Pakistan
and replacement by a radical Islamist regime having
possession of nuclear weapons. That would provoke a
military response from nuclear power India.
In a counter-attack, Iran would immediately launch its
Shahab I and II missiles at the U. S. Green Zone in
Baghdad, the Al Udeid airbase in Qatar, the US Navy base
in Bahrain, Camp Doha base in Kuwait, Al Seeb airbase in
Oman, Baghdad International Airport, the U. S. base in
Kandahar, Afghanistan. Iran would also launch its
long-range Shahab III missiles on the Israeli cities of
Tel Aviv, Haifa, Beersheba, Eilat, and the Israeli
nuclear complex at Dimona. Iranian missiles would also be
launched at US naval ships in the Persian Gulf and oil
installations in Saudi Arabia and Kuwait.
The virtual end of NATO as a viable defense organization
may also result from an attack that will drive a final
wedge between Washington and Europe. And China may elect
to respond financially and militarily against the United
States since Iran is China's second largest source of
imported Middle East oil after Saudi Arabia and plans to
use an Iranian terminal for the export of natural gas
from Turkmenistan. [China now imports 60 percent of its
oil needs, and Iran represents 17 percent of those
imports].
Russia recently participated in, through the Shanghai
Cooperation Organization (SCO), a three-way military
exercise (code named "Indira 2005") between Russia,
China, and India to prepare for any new U. S. power
projections in Asia, including an attack on Iran, a
prospective SCO member. Last August, Russia and China
held their first-ever joint land-sea-air military
exercises.
Iran also held a large military exercise in early
December in Bandar Abbas on the Gulf. An Iranian C-130
carrying Iranian journalists from Mehrabad airport to
Bandar to cover the exercise crashed into a Tehran
apartment building on December 6, killing at least 116
people, including 68 journalists.
Within the U. S. military and across the globe, there is
heightened tension about the intentions of the neocon
Bush administration and its allies in Israel.
http://waynemadsenreport.com/
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